Copenhagen Accord's January 31st Deadline in Jeopardy

Last month’s United Nations climate meetings in Copenhagen yielded an agreement referred to as the "Copenhagen Accord," which included a pledge by developing countries (listed in Annex I of the Kyoto Protocol) such as the United States to outline a range of emission reductions targets up to 2020 by January 31, 2010.  Developing countries also promised to submit action plans to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by this date. 

Although U.S. Climate Envoy Todd Stern explained earlier this month the importance of meeting this deadline, Yvo De Boer, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), stated in a January 20th webcast that “I think you could describe it as a soft deadline."

The deadline’s downgrade from "hard" to "soft," which comes less than two weeks before the target date of January 31st that has thus far been met by only nine out of 192 countries, is a critical misstep by the lead climate change official at the UN.  Given the nature of the Accord (not a legally-binding document) and the disastrous negotiating process in which it was created, it is crucial that world leaders encourage the fulfillment of deadlines set out in the agreement because a "soft" deadline can amount to no action at all. 

The so-called "BASIC" developing countries – Brazil, India, China and South Africa – initially indicated that they would jointly release their mitigation plans by the deadline.  However, following Mr. de Boer’s comments, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh recanted on that position, saying that he would wait to release his country’s mitigation plans until receiving clarification on the legal status of "certain issues" in the Copenhagen Accord.

On December 29, 2009, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva signed a law requiring Brazil to cut GHG emissions by 39 percent by 2020.  Although the law is subject to several decrees setting out responsibilities and regulations for the farming, industrial, energy, and environmental sectors, President Lula vetoed three of the bill’s provisions, including a reference to “promoting the development of clean energy sources and the gradual phasing out of energy from fossil fuels.”  The release of Brazil’s mitigation plan – hopefully by the January 31st deadline – will provide a much clearer picture of how the developing nation will fulfill its goal of reducing GHG emissions by 39 percent before the end of this new decade.

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